Managing Through Polycrisis: Frameworks for Concurrent Disruptions

Let’s be honest. A single crisis is tough enough. But today? It feels like we’re constantly juggling multiple, interconnected emergencies. A supply chain snarl meets a geopolitical flashpoint. A cyberattack hits during a talent shortage. Inflation and climate events pile on. This isn’t just bad luck—it’s the new normal. Experts call it polycrisis.

Polycrisis describes the messy, overlapping reality where several systemic risks converge. Their combined impact is worse than the sum of their parts. It’s like trying to fix a leaky roof in the middle of a hurricane, while also fending off bees. Not fun. So, how do leaders steer their organizations through this chaos? Old playbooks, built for one problem at a time, just don’t cut it.

We need new frameworks. Let’s dive into some practical ways to build resilience when everything seems to be happening at once.

What Makes Polycrisis Different (And So Damn Hard)

First, it’s crucial to understand the beast. A polycrisis isn’t a list of separate issues. It’s a web. The connections are what get you. A political decision on the other side of the world can spike your energy costs and demoralize your team—simultaneously.

The key characteristics? Concurrency, complexity, and cascading effects. You can’t solve A without understanding how it’s tangled with B and C. This demands a shift from linear, siloed thinking to something more… holistic. Almost like ecological thinking. You have to see the whole garden, not just the individual plants—or weeds.

The Mental Shift: From Control to Navigation

This is maybe the hardest part. In a polycrisis, the goal isn’t total control. That’s an illusion. The goal is effective navigation. Think of it as sailing in unpredictable seas rather than driving on a paved highway. You adjust the sails constantly, you read the wind and water, and you accept you might get off course. Resilience becomes your true north.

Frameworks for Concurrent Disruption Management

Okay, enough theory. Here are some actionable frameworks to embed in your organization’s thinking.

1. The “Sensor Network” Approach

In a fast-moving environment, early warning is everything. But you can’t just watch the news. You need a distributed sensor network across your organization.

• Empower frontline teams to report weak signals. Your logistics manager might spot a port delay before the CEO does.
• Look beyond your industry. Subscribe to feeds from finance, climate science, even sociology. Strange connections emerge.
• Formalize “weak signal” reviews. Dedicate part of leadership meetings to discussing these nascent threats and opportunities. The question isn’t “Is this a problem?” but “If this trend continues, what could it trigger for us?”

2. Scenario Planning – But Make It Adaptive

Traditional scenario planning imagines a few distinct futures. Polycrisis demands something more fluid—adaptive scenario planning. You develop a handful of “base” scenarios, but you treat them as living narratives.

For instance, don’t just plan for “Economic Downturn.” Plan for “Economic Downturn + New Trade Sanctions + Social Unrest.” Then, identify the early indicators for each layer. The real power? Running regular “stress tests” on your key decisions. “If we launch this product in Q3, how would it hold up in three of our nightmare scenarios?” This builds strategic flexibility right into your choices.

3. Building Modular Resilience

Monolithic systems break under polycrisis pressure. The answer is modularity. Think of it as building with Lego blocks instead of carving from marble.

Monolithic System	Modular System
Single, global supplier	Regional + nearshore supplier network
Centralized decision-making	Empowered local teams with clear guardrails
One-size-fits-all product line	Platform-based products adaptable to local needs
Rigid, annual planning cycles	Rolling quarterly forecasts with trigger points

This way, if one module fails—a region, a supplier, a product line—the whole structure doesn’t collapse. You isolate the damage and swap in a backup “block.” It’s about creating options, not just efficiencies.

The Human Element: Leading When Stress is the Default

Frameworks are useless if your team is burned out. Polycrisis creates chronic stress, which leads to terrible decisions—like decision fatigue, groupthink, and just plain panic.

• Radical Transparency (With Context): Don’t just share bad news. Explain the “why” and the “so what.” Uncertainty is more draining than hard truths.
• Psychological Safety as a Core Metric: Teams must feel safe to say “I don’t know” or “This might fail.” This isn’t soft stuff; it’s your early-warning system.
• Design for Recovery: You can’t sprint a marathon. Build in deliberate pauses, celebrate small wins (crucial!), and model disconnection. If the captain never sleeps, the crew mutinies.

Putting It All Together: A Polycrisis Mindset

So, what does this look like day-to-day? It’s a mindset, more than a checklist. Honestly, it’s a bit uncomfortable at first. You have to get cozy with ambiguity. You prioritize adaptability over pure optimization. You invest in relationships and networks—because in a crunch, trust is your most liquid asset.

You start asking different questions: “How does this decision make us more or less flexible?” “What are we learning from this disruption that prepares us for the next one?” “Where are we too comfortable, too efficient, and therefore too fragile?”

End of the day, managing through polycrisis isn’t about finding a calm harbor. It’s about becoming a sturdier, more responsive ship—with a well-rested, trusted crew—capable of handling whatever wild seas come next. The disruptions will keep coming. The goal is to stop just surviving them, and start learning, adapting, and maybe even finding a strange kind of advantage in the chaos.